Bear market fractals, shaky technical indicators, and macrorisks continue to warn that Bitcoin is due for more suffering.
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On August 20, Bitcoin (BTC) made a little recovery, but it was still expected to record its worst weekly performance in the previous two months.
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The price of BTC increased 2.58% to $21,372 per token on the daily chart, but it was still down almost 14.5% for the week as a whole, its lowest weekly performance since mid-August. Nevertheless, several on-chain signals imply that Bitcoin's corrective phase may be reaching its conclusion.
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This contains Hash Ribbons, a statistic used to assess whether miners are operating in accumulation or capitulation mode by monitoring the hash rate of Bitcoin. For the first time since August 2021, the indicator as of August 20 indicates that the miners' surrender is done, which might cause the price momentum to change from negative to positive.
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However, despite a flurry of current bearish signs, including unfavorable technical setups and its persistent vulnerability to macrorisks, Bitcoin has been unable to overcome them. Consequently, a negative continuation cannot be ruled out despite positive on-chain data.
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Here are three reasons why the market bottom for bitcoin may still be a ways off.
This week's price drop in bitcoin has resulted in a rising wedge collapse, which portends more losses for the cryptocurrency in the weeks ahead.
Rising wedges are bearish reversal patterns that develop as price moves upward within a contracting, ascending channel but resolve after it breaks downward, which might cause a drop to as low as the maximum wedge's height.
The rising wedge breakdown goal on the BTC chart above is $17,600 when technical considerations are applied. In other words, by September, the price of Bitcoin may have decreased by about 25%.
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After bottoming out locally at around $17,500 in June, the price of bitcoin increased by almost 45% during the creation of a rising wedge.
It's interesting to note that the time when Bitcoin saw upward movement also happened to correspond with investors' rising belief that inflation has peaked and that the Federal Reserve would begin lowering interest rates as early as March 2023.
In other words, pressure on Bitcoin and other risky assets, which entered a bear market when the Fed started an aggressive tightening cycle in March, should continue for the foreseeable future.
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If past events have any indication...
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Given the asset's history of such recoveries during weak markets, the current Bitcoin price recovery runs the danger of being misinterpreted as a positive indicator.
During the 2018 bear market cycle, the price of BTC increased by about 100%, rising from about $6,000 to over $11,500, only to completely erase the gains and fall to roughly $3,200. Notably, comparable corrections and rebounds also occurred in 2019 and 2022.
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